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Container Rates

Container rates averaged $3,333 in June, marking a 53.7% increase compared to May, and effectively reversing a five-month streak of declining prices in the global container shipping market. This sudden and substantial spike can be attributed to a combination of seasonal, strategic, and geopolitical factors:

Early Peak-Season Demand:
Retailers and manufacturers, especially in the U.S. and Europe, have started stocking up earlier than usual in anticipation of the traditional peak season, which typically runs from July through October. This early surge in demand is likely driven by a mix of cautious inventory strategies and concerns over future supply chain reliability. As a result, more cargo is being booked earlier, pushing up spot container rates.‍
Capacity Tightening from Blank Sailings:
Ocean carriers have increasingly resorted to blank sailings, the deliberate cancellation of scheduled voyages, to reduce available capacity and stabilize or elevate rates in response to prior overcapacity and weak demand. While this is a common strategy during slow periods, its continued use now, amid rising demand, has tightened space on key routes, thereby driving prices up.‍
Disruptions in Key Trade Routes:
Persistent logistical challenges and geopolitical disruptions have further squeezed the global shipping network. For example, instability around the Red Sea due to security threats, restrictions in the Panama Canal due to drought, and port congestion in Asia have all contributed to delays, rerouted vessels, and an overall decrease in available shipping capacity. These issues create bottlenecks that restrict supply even as demand rises, exacerbating the upward pressure on container rates.

In summary, the sharp increase in container shipping rates in June is the result of a perfect storm: rising demand, artificially restricted supply, and real-world logistical constraints, all combining to jolt the market out of its previous downward trend. If these conditions persist, or worsen, shippers may continue to face higher transportation costs in the months ahead.

Air freight Rates

In June, global airfreight rates averaged $2.27 per kilogram, a slight month-over-month decline. This small dip reflects a stable and balanced market, continuing the trend seen throughout 2025.

Air cargo has remained steady compared to more volatile sectors like ocean freight. Several factors support this consistency:

Supply and demand are well aligned. Airlines have managed freighter and passenger belly capacity effectively, keeping space in line with shipment volumes and preventing major pricing swings.‍
Market conditions have normalized. After years of pandemic-driven volatility, most shippers and forwarders have adapted to reliable transit times and more predictable pricing.‍
No major disruptions have occurred. Unlike ocean freight, which faced issues in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, air cargo routes have remained largely unaffected, helping maintain steady rates.‍
The peak season hasn’t fully arrived yet. Airfreight typically sees stronger volume spikes later in the year, especially for high-value goods like electronics and apparel. June’s rates suggest those volumes haven’t ramped up yet.

In short, the average rate of $2.27 in June points to a market that remains stable and well balanced, with no significant shifts on the horizon, at least for now.
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Deep Dive: Peak Season 2025

The 2025 peak shipping season has taken shape earlier than usual, and while not marked by panic, the environment is far from calm. Shippers are facing increasing constraints across ocean and air networks, driven by a mix of front-loaded demand, trade policy uncertainty, and continued disruption in key trade lanes.

Container shipping markets have seen a sharp rebound in pricing and space tightness, reflecting rising volumes, more blank sailings, and diversions around the Red Sea. Meanwhile, air cargo demand is growing steadily, with capacity holding for now, though forwarders warn of tightening as the season progresses.

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Industry sentiment: mixed but cautious

According to a recent Logistics Management reader survey, just 27% of respondents expect the 2025 peak to be more active than last year, down from 48% in 2024. That suggests a more tempered outlook overall, though challenges remain.

Top concerns cited in the survey include:

Tariff uncertainty
Capacity constraints
Port congestion
Disruption in global trade lanes

Importantly, many logistics professionals report having started shipping earlier than usual in 2025, particularly in anticipation of long transit times and volatility in international routing.

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What’s driving the early season surge?

Retailers and manufacturers began moving inventory earlier in Q2 to get ahead of:

July–August back-to-school demand
China’s October Golden Week
A potential U.S.–China tariff shift, which could affect goods arriving later in Q3
Ongoing delays from vessel rerouting due to Red Sea attacks and Panama Canal transit limits

Carriers have responded by tightening schedules and selectively deploying capacity. Forwarders note that space is becoming harder to secure on certain transpacific and Asia–Europe lanes, particularly for lower-tier services.

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Airfreight holds, for now

Air cargo demand is rising modestly, driven by mode shifting and replenishment cycles. Global capacity has benefited from expanded passenger networks, especially over summer months, helping to meet the increase. However, this balance is fragile.

Forwarders and analysts point to growing interest in air for urgent or high-value goods, especially as ocean delays persist. Any further disruption, such as escalated Middle East conflict or severe congestion in Asia, could strain available freighter space heading into the traditional Q4 shipping rush.

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Ground transport remains serviceable, but selective

North American trucking remains relatively stable, with soft spot market conditions giving shippers options. However, carriers are focusing on higher-margin contractual freight and avoiding volatile or inefficient lanes. Capacity is available, but service quality can vary depending on region and timing.

In Europe, ground freight is contending with driver shortages, stricter emissions regulations, and ripple effects from port slowdowns. Inland transport planning is expected to become more difficult in late Q3 as international volumes increase.

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Strategies for a successful peak

Shippers navigating this year’s peak are emphasizing:

Early bookings across modes
Flexible routing options
Tighter inventory control and demand forecasting
Proactive communication with carriers and 3PLs

Industry experts agree: 2025 may not bring extreme volatility, but uncertainty remains the norm. Companies that have learned from the past few years are now acting ahead of disruptions, not in response to them.

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Final thoughts

The 2025 peak season reflects a more mature and anticipatory logistics environment. While demand patterns have normalized somewhat, global risk factors, from trade policy to chokepoint instability, mean that predictability is still elusive.

Shippers that prepare early, monitor trade conditions closely, and diversify their logistics options will be best positioned to handle whatever this season brings.

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Sources: Logistics Management, Freightwaves, Freightos, IATA, Maersk, Arrive Logistics

Rulewave Monthly Insight June

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