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Container Rates

In April, container rates continued their downward trend, though the decline has become more gradual. The average rate for the month was $2,198, compared to $2,391 in March. This represents a drop of 8% month-over-month, a less steep decrease than in previous months, indicating that rates may be approaching a stabilization point. While pricing pressure remains, the pace of the decline is easing slightly, suggesting a potential bottoming out in the near term.

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Air freight Rates

Average prices fell back to $2.26in April, matching the year’s lowest level first seen in January. This comes after modest increases in February and March, which had suggested a potential upward trend. The reversal in April indicates that the market remains unstable, with no clear direction established.

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Deep Dive: Container crisis ahead?

Global shipping hits choppy waters

After weathering the storms of COVID-19 and the 2009financial crisis, the container shipping industry is bracing for another downturn. This time, not due to a virus or collapsing banks, but because of politics.

According to shipping analysts at Drewry, global container volumes are expected to fall by about 1% this year, roughly the same drop the world saw during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The biggest force behind this 2025 slowdown? U.S. trade policy.

President Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy, particularly against China, is starting to have its effects, and not just inAsia. Ironically, it’s not China that’s suffering most. Drewry projects a 5.5%decline in U.S. container volumes this year, followed by a 4.6% drop in 2026.China, the main target of U.S. tariffs, is expected to see a 4% hit in 2025, but with a significantly milder drop of 1.6% the year after.

German carrier Hapag-Lloyd reports that nearly a third of its bookings from China to the U.S. have been canceled in recent weeks. At the same time, demand from places like Vietnam and Thailand is surging, as companies shift their production out of China to dodge tariffs.

Winners and losers

The disruption is real, but not all bad news.Countries like Vietnam, India, and even Poland are benefiting as manufacturing shifts out of China. These nations are quickly becoming new hubs for exports to the U.S. and could see double-digit growth in container volumes this year.

Meanwhile, China is adapting. Though it’s feeling the impact now, analysts expect it to bounce back faster than the U.S. “China will find new markets,” one expert put it.

Real-time effects

German shipping line Hapag-Lloyd is already seeing the effects on the ground, or rather, at sea. Roughly 30% of its China-to-U.S.bookings have been canceled in recent weeks, as clients scramble to avoid steep tariffs. Meanwhile, there's a surge in demand for exports from countries likeThailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, prompting the carrier to deploy smaller vessels on some U.S.-bound routes to adjust to the new shipping patterns.

What’s next for shipping?

The next few months could be rough. With shippers trying to get goods moving ahead of more potential tariff hikes, July is expected to be especially chaotic. Some analysts are even comparing the volatility to early COVID times: unpredictable and intense.

Carriers are adjusting as best they can. Smaller ships, reshuffled routes, and contingency plans are becoming the norm. But uncertainty remains high, especially with more U.S. regulations looming, including new port fees on Chinese-built ships.

The bottom line

We’re witnessing a rare moment in global trade, a self-inflicted slowdown, driven not by market forces, but by political choices.And while some countries stand to gain from the reshuffle, the overall effect is clear: disruption, uncertainty, and a very bumpy ride ahead for the container industry.

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Rulewave Monthly Insight April 2025

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