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Ocean freight: Rates ease from June peak, but volatility persists

In July, average container rates fell to $2,651, continuing a downward correction from the recent high of $3,333 in June. Rates are still fluctuating by region, but the latest shift points to a possible stabilization after months of disruption linked to Red Sea rerouting and changing demand dynamics.

Over the past year, the trend has been highly volatile. Rates peaked at $5,878 in July 2024, dropped sharply by Q4, rebounded to $3,711 in January 2025, and then declined again before a temporary spike in June.

The latest easing may reflect efforts by carriers to stabilize the market through tighter capacity control. However, tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk continue to create pricing instability. Supply chain teams should stay prepared for rapid shifts in both rates and lead times.

Airfreight: Flat and stable at $2.33/kg

Airfreight rates remained broadly unchanged in July, averaging $2.33/kg. This reflects a continuation of the flat trend seen throughout 2025, with only slight movements month to month.

Rates have ranged between $2.26 and $2.61 over the past year, supported by relatively steady demand and balanced capacity across major lanes. High inventory levels are reducing urgency, while airlines have been able to adjust capacity more precisely.

Although July saw a small increase from the previous month, it falls within the normal range of fluctuations. As peak season approaches, any rise in e-commerce volumes could put upward pressure on rates, so close monitoring remains essential.

Red Sea Crisis adds 18 million Tons of CO₂ emissions: What it means for the Logistics industry

When geopolitical unrest arises, the effects aren’t just felt in defense and diplomacy, they hit supply chains, emissions targets, and logistics budgets hard.

That’s exactly what’s playing out in the Red Sea, where Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels have triggered a major rerouting of global container traffic.

According to new data from Sea Intelligence, this crisis has caused an estimated 18 million metric tons of additional CO₂ emissions in 2024 alone, nearly equivalent to the entire annual emissions of a country like Cambodia.

Let’s take a closer look at how this is impacting the logistics sector, and what companies can do to respond.

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What’s happening in the Red Sea?

Since late 2023, the Houthi attacks near the Bab el Mandeb strait have forced shipping lines to avoid the Suez Canal, rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. That detour adds 4,700 to 5,800 nautical miles to Asia–Europe routes, translating into 10–14 days of extra sailing time.

Major carriers, including Maersk, Hapag Lloyd, CMA CGM, and MSC, have adjusted services accordingly. But this rerouting doesn’t just affect timing or freight costs, it significantly increases fuel use, emissions, and operating complexity.

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The Emissions impact: +45% for container ships

Container shipping in EU waters emitted 52.7 million tons of CO₂ in 2024, up from the expected 34.7 million tons. That’s a 45% jump, almost entirely due to rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Other vessel types like tankers and bulk carriers show no comparable emissions increase.

So why was container shipping hit hardest?

• Longer routes = more fuel burned.

• Faster speeds to recover delays = even more emissions.

• More vessels deployed to keep schedules = further CO₂ growth.

The result is a blow to industry-wide decarbonization efforts. From 2018–2023, container shipping had been reducing CO₂ by ~4.4% annually. That trend is now reversed, at least temporarily.

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Why it matters to logistics professionals

1. Carbon costs are rising

With shipping now included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), every extra ton of CO₂ has a financial price. For shippers and freight forwarders, that means exposure to higher carbon permit costs, especially on long-haul EU-inbound lanes.

2. Scope 3 emissions are climbing

If your company tracks supply chain emissions under Scope 3 (like many ESG-driven brands), you may already be noticing the impact. More CO₂ from shipping means higher reported emissions, even if your shipment volume hasn’t changed.

3. Supply chain volatility isn’t going away

Delays, detours, and extra fuel charges disrupt more than just transit time, they affect inventory planning, carrier allocation, and overall cost-to-serve. Some businesses have turned to air freight or rail, but those options can also come with higher emissions (and much higher costs).

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Final thoughts

The Red Sea crisis shows how fast external shocks can unwind years of sustainability progress in logistics. While geopolitical conflict may be out of your control, how your supply chain responds is not. Whether you're a shipper, freight forwarder, or supply chain leader, this is the moment to strengthen your strategy, not just to cut emissions, but to build resilience in a volatile world.

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Sources: Sea intelligence, Reuters, Xeneta

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Rulewave Monthly Industry Insight July 2025

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